Guest post from Charles Hugh Smith. Does carefully nurturing a facade of health actually lead to health? No; all it does is perpetuate a destructive illusion. The policy of the Status Quo since 2008 boils down to this assumption: if we prop up an artificial economy long enough, it will magically become real. This is an […]
I have always been a proponent of listening to the people who have generally been right all along about the housing crisis, while ignoring those who are generally wrong year after year (NAR, Mark Zandi, etc.) I pay extra attention to Mike “Mish” Shedlock who recently suggested that the housing collapse is near it’s end. […]
Wall St Journal, by way of Calculated Risk had some housing comments recently along the lines of markets “improving from the bottom up“. They referenced some data suggesting a surge in buying activity within lower price sectors of real estate in New York and New Jersey. They continued with analyst commentary suggesting that it was […]
Today I attended a speaking event featuring Barry Habib, sponsored by Walnut Creek’s RPM Mortgage and a mortgage-broker friend of mine, Ken Neate. Barry is a well-respected businessman, investment professional, and a heavyweight in the mortgage industry, and was invited to share his thoughts on the mortgage market, interest rates, the economy, stocks, and the housing market with a select group of local real estate agents.
Especially since the 1990′s, home prices have largely been driven, directly or indirectly, by the actions of The Fed. The Greenspan Fed enabled the Credit and Housing Bubbles, and the Bernanke Fed is doing everything it can to keep them inflated, extending and pretending, hoping the fundamental core economy will eventually catch up.
In terms of the median price, it took almost 600 ounces of gold to buy the median priced house in 2005.
Then housing collapsed, and gold rocketed from $500/oz to $1,500/oz. As a result of housing declining by 40% and gold tripling, the ratio has plummeted by 80%, from 500 to just above 100.
Whether you define deflation in terms of credit, in terms of purchasing power of the dollar, in terms of the CPI, or in terms of the Case-Shiller CPI, to the complete consternation of screaming hyperinflationists, those predicting deflation got it correct.