Tag Archives: GDP

Exactly What is a Housing Recovery?

Everywhere you look, people are saying that housing is recovering. But exactly what is a housing recovery? Think about it… does a housing recovery mean a return to peak bubble home prices? Or peak number of existing home sales? Or peak new home sales? Or contribution to GDP? Does it even mean a return to […]

The fiscal cliff: what all the fuss is about

What is the definition of fiscal?  Webster’s dictionary says fiscal means “of or pertaining to the public treasury or revenues.”  When the President talks about fiscal policy, the President is talking about how the federal government will spend tax revenue. So, what is the fiscal cliff?  Based on current federal government policy, laws will go […]

A comment on Superstorm Sandy’s effect on the economy

Is a hurricane or other natural disaster good for the economy?  No is the answer.  And here is an explanation. A natural disaster destroys wealth in the economy.   Wealth is equal to homes, cars, bridges, seawalls, and more man-made things.  Also, wealth includes natural things, such as forests and estuaries.  With the destruction of […]

If You Prop Up an Artificial Economy Long Enough, Does It Become Real?

Guest post from Charles Hugh Smith. Does carefully nurturing a facade of health actually lead to health? No; all it does is perpetuate a destructive illusion. The policy of the Status Quo since 2008 boils down to this assumption: if we prop up an artificial economy long enough, it will magically become real. This is an […]


This week I attended a webinar sponsored by a major investment firm.  One of the company’s chief advisors, with 33 years of experience, gave his thoughts on where the world economy is right now and what might happen in 2012. I am certainly not an economist.  And not all economists are in agreement as to […]

Five Reasons Why Home Prices Aren't Bottoming Yet

Bottom-pickers have smelly fingers. Ever since the first local home price declines of 2006, there have been groups calling the bottom. Realtors, mortgage brokers, home builders, and various economists crawl out of the woodwork each Spring to announce that home prices are about to start going up. Their logic is always flawed, their data too […]

When to be Skeptical of Economic Forecasts

Whenever the “low point” is right now and things are about to get better, be cautious. We’ve seen WAY too many forecasts that look like this over the last six or seven years. From The Atlantic: GDP Predictions A note on reading the graph: The dark blue band represents the “central tendency of projections” and […]