Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Hogs Get Slaughtered

A tip of the hat to Tom Stone for the title of this post, he ended a post he wrote earlier this week about whether or not now is a good time to list your home in the bay area with it. The San Francisco real estate market has had a massive supply of buyers over the past several months, but the listings haven’t been there, which means that there have been numerous homes going over asking, sometimes for substantially over asking.

For example, this past week at the Zephyr sales meeting, 20 out of the 25 sales announced were in contract for over the asking price. Of those 20 sales that were over asking, two agents mentioned that the homes their client bid on had more than 15 offers, and two of the sales were also for $250,000 over the asking price!

So the question remains in San Francisco – when will the supply arrive? And as the title of this article suggests, I think that it will arrive, and that once it does we will see a swing towards a much more normal San Francisco market. Which isn’t to say that we will be in a balanced market, I still expect it to be a seller’s market (which is pretty much the norm in San Francisco, given that demand almost always exceeds supply).

That said, I think that within a few months we will see enough supply arrive to significantly ease some of the frustrations that buyers are currently experiencing. The sellers that are on the market right now are cleaning up, for lack of a better technical term. But I don’t think that will remain true for the rest of the year.

This is San Francisco real estate we are talking about though, so sellers that arrive late to the market won’t necessarily be slaughtered, but they also shouldn’t expect to do as well as some of the current sellers are. What are your thoughts?


One thought on “Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Hogs Get Slaughtered

  1. Tom Stone

    Thanks for the hat tip. My market (Greater Sebastopol) is like San Francisco in that the demand has been greater than the supply for many decades. Supply is very tight right now and I do expect prices to moderate when that changes, and I expect that change later this year.
    One difference I see in this cycle that I have not seen in previous cycles is the lack of lowball offers on somewhat overpriced homes. There are several homes for sale in town that are sitting, solely due to the price.
    In some cases these are obdurate sellers who won’t consider an offer lower than their asking price. But, and this is a big change, buyers are in many cases not willing to make an offer they feel is reasonable when a home they like is priced too high.
    Buyers are in general much more aware of market conditions than sellers, the market is more transparent than it has ever been and they seem to dig deeper than the headlines when deciding how much they are willing to pay.
    I’m hoping for a somewhat saner market but I’m not about to forget that “Normal” is in Illinois.

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