In my post Tale of Two Markets: Breaking Down Case-Shiller Tiered Indices, we see that higher-priced communities have enjoyed relatively stable home prices over the last couple of years, while mid-low priced ares are seeing prices falling more steeply.
The lower and middle-tiers are generally following the same pattern. When the supply of foreclosures was turned off, interest rates dropped, and buyer incentives kicked in, both market segments rallied. Then, when that temporary stimulus was exhausted, they resumed their declines at a paces of roughly 10 percent per year.
However, the top-tier – homes priced above $579,803 – are only declining at a pace of roughly 3-4 percent per year.
As an example, I pulled all of the sales data for Danville, Pleasanton, and Lafayette and plotted the high, mid, and low tier median prices for each month. If you live in a higher-priced community like these, your last couple of years probably looked something like this: