Stock markets are up big today on the news of a Euro-zone agreement on Greek bailout. Know that none of the fundamental problems have actually been solved.
Felix Salmon shares this chart:
This, ladies and gentlemen, is how the sausage gets made — it’s yesterday’s eurozone rescue plan, as presented by an unidentified adviser to one of the European Union governments involved in the negotiations.
We need a lot more details on this, I think. Or, maybe, we don’t. Trying to extract details could mean forcing players to confront the fact that they all think they’ve agreed to something slightly different. And that might not be a good idea right now.
Although many details are yet to be resolved, the bulls got everything they wanted except endless printing by the ECB. However, the sad fundamental situation remains unchanged
- No structural problems have been solved
- Banks most assuredly need more than 106 billion in recapitalization efforts. The idea that French banks only need to raise 8.8 billion is preposterous.
- No investors in their right mind will fund Greek and Spanish banks to the tune of 56.2 billion euros
- The haircuts were not voluntary
Instead of the rumor mill of potential actions working to lift the market 24 hours a day for three straight weeks, it will be up to the EU to make the plan work. However, the plan won’t work because of point number one above: not a single structural problem has been solved.
In short, stocks are up because the world isn’t going to come to and end in the next couple of months. But nothing was actually fixed, so the Greece problem isn’t going away any time soon.
Looks like a heck of a selling opportunity to me.