Monthly Archives: May 2010

Why Housing’s Bear Market Rally is About to End

It is unlikely (though not impossible) that prices will plummet once more; price declines are likely to be small relative to those experienced in 2008 and 2009. But small declines are enough to do damage. Four years after the housing boom reached its apex and the bust began, and end to the mess remains just out of reach.

The incurable onset of mortgage delinquency

We have a potential pipeline of 2.5 million more foreclosures (almost assured in the 90 day group). Then you have another 2.5 million with at least one missed payment that have a low cure rate as well. This doesn’t seem like good news to me given the horrible cure rate on these loans.

Six Impossible Things

Should the US Bail Out European Banks?

The obvious answer to the above question, at least on this side of the Atlantic, is no. But that is the plan being foisted on US tax-payers by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF wants to create a $250 billion dollar bailout fund for Greece, Portugal, et al that the US will contribute roughly 20% to. This fund will loan money and that IMG debt will be subordinate (junior!) to regular Greek debt, so when Greece does default, and they will, the IMF is the last in line to get paid.